Polymarket Events

Israel closes its airspace by...?

Mon, 04 May 2026 23:52:26 GMT

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume: $26,680,692.697

Markets:

Israel closes its airspace by May 8?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 21:54:39 GMT

General elections are scheduled to be held in Ethiopia on June 1, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Ethiopia following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Ethiopia. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Ethiopia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume: $270,161,512.639

Markets:

Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Yes: 94.2% | No: 5.9%
Will Belete Molla be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Yes: 0.6% | No: 99.4%
Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Yes: 0.9% | No: 99.1%

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 21:53:43 GMT

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume: $29,071,853.21

Markets:

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Yes: 8.5% | No: 91.5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

Sat, 14 Mar 2026 00:25:34 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by March 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume: $70,057,882.099

Markets:

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
Yes: 2.5% | No: 97.5%

Iran leader end of 2026?

Sun, 01 Mar 2026 00:15:11 GMT

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.

Volume: $38,045,618.344

Markets:

Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
Yes: 4.5% | No: 95.5%
Will Muhammad Mirbaqiri be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes: 0.4% | No: 99.6%
Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
Yes: 0.3% | No: 99.8%

Pro Football: 2027 Champion

Mon, 09 Feb 2026 00:41:51 GMT

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2027 NFL league championship. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2027 NFL league championship per the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2027 NFL league championship game is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2027 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from NFL (https://www.nfl.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume: $43,260,593.085

Markets:

Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Yes: 0.8% | No: 99.3%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Yes: 0.8% | No: 99.3%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship?
Yes: 6.9% | No: 93.2%

MLB World Series Champion 2026

Wed, 21 Jan 2026 20:45:03 GMT

This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026 MLB World Series. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 MLB World Series per the rules of MLB (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from MLB (https://www.mlb.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume: $38,549,146.095

Markets:

Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
Yes: 8.5% | No: 91.5%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series?
Yes: 0.1% | No: 99.9%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series?
Yes: 6.6% | No: 93.5%

New "Stranger Things" episode released by...?

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 22:17:09 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Netflix officially releases a new episode of Stranger Things (i.e., an episode that was not previously available to stream on Netflix) between market creation and January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, an “episode” must be listed as a distinct episode of Stranger Things on Netflix and be playable for general subscribers in the United States. A behind-the-scenes featurette, documentary, trailer, recap, cast interview, deleted scenes compilation, or other bonus content will not count unless it is clearly presented by Netflix as an official numbered or titled episode of the series. If Netflix releases an alternate cut, extended cut, or “secret” version of an already-released episode, it will not count unless it is listed as a separate episode entry on Netflix. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Stranger Things title page on Netflix (episode list and availability), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume: $30,876,006.616

Markets:

New "Stranger Things" episode released by May 31?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by July 31?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Sun, 04 Jan 2026 18:21:09 GMT

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Volume: $95,260,041.351

Markets:

Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes: 0.4% | No: 99.6%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes: 3.1% | No: 96.9%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Yes: 9.5% | No: 90.5%

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 00:58:12 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially announces that Greenland will come under US sovereignty by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Sovereignty is defined as the transfer of the majority of the territory of Greenland from its current status as an autonomous territory within the Kingdom of Denmark to being under the formal governance or jurisdiction of the United States, either as a state, territory, or other classification within the US system. An official announcement made by the United States and Denmark that Greenland will come under US sovereignty will qualify, even if the actual transfer of sovereignty is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the US, Greenland, and Denmark, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Greenland has come under U.S. sovereignty will also qualify.

Volume: $35,234,891.552

Markets:

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Yes: 3.6% | No: 96.4%

F1 Drivers' Champion

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 00:55:47 GMT

This market will resolve according to the listed driver that finishes 1st in the driver standings for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. If multiple drivers tie for first place in the drivers standings, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Drivers’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed driver to win the 2026 F1 Drivers Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Formula 1.

Volume: $200,770,441.142

Markets:

Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Yes: 3.3% | No: 96.8%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Yes: 0.4% | No: 99.6%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?
Yes: 5.5% | No: 94.5%

F1 Constructors' Champion

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 00:55:42 GMT

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Volume: $28,275,059.005

Markets:

Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Yes: 1.5% | No: 98.5%
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Yes: 84.5% | No: 15.5%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
Yes: 0.3% | No: 99.8%

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 18:08:21 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Volume: $64,968,674.188

Markets:

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Yes: 1.9% | No: 98.0%

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

Tue, 25 Nov 2025 18:05:19 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Volume: $64,253,651.061

Markets:

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
Yes: 2.5% | No: 97.5%

What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?

Mon, 24 Nov 2025 19:07:12 GMT

What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?

Volume: $51,729,085.421

Markets:

Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes | No
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes: 100.0% | No: 0.0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?
Yes: 11.5% | No: 88.5%

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Sat, 15 Nov 2025 00:27:02 GMT

Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election. To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Volume: $31,382,611.849

Markets:

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes: 32.5% | No: 67.5%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes: 5.5% | No: 94.5%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Yes: 0.1% | No: 99.9%

Next French Presidential Election

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 23:09:35 GMT

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If, for any reason, the results of the election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

Volume: $118,043,381.2

Markets:

Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes: 29.8% | No: 70.2%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes: 3.3% | No: 96.8%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?
Yes: 0.9% | No: 99.2%

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 17:52:17 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Volume: $57,605,214.047

Markets:

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Yes: 16.5% | No: 83.5%

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 23:52:00 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power. Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify. Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Volume: $24,283,385.017

Markets:

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Yes: 6.5% | No: 93.5%

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 22:30:31 GMT

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Volume: $23,278,765.514

Markets:

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Yes: 2.6% | No: 97.4%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Yes: 3.0% | No: 97.0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
Yes: 8.5% | No: 91.5%

California Governor Election Winner

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 23:29:47 GMT

This market will resolve to according to the candidate who wins the 2026 California gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Volume: $40,599,632.474

Markets:

Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes: 0.1% | No: 100.0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes: 0.1% | No: 100.0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Yes: 0.1% | No: 100.0%

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 22:24:45 GMT

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Volume: $47,592,477.401

Markets:

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes: 86.0% | No: 14.1%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
Yes: 9.5% | No: 90.5%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
Yes: 2.8% | No: 97.3%

Ballon d'Or Winner 2026

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 23:39:02 GMT

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ballon d’Or. If no 2026 Ballon d’Or winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from France Football (https://www.francefootball.fr/).

Volume: $27,544,576.652

Markets:

Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes: 8.3% | No: 91.6%
Will Erling Haaland win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes: 0.4% | No: 99.7%
Will Jude Bellingham win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
Yes: 0.3% | No: 99.8%

Brazil Presidential Election

Thu, 18 Sep 2025 20:07:57 GMT

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).

Volume: $120,992,093.077

Markets:

Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes: 0.1% | No: 100.0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes: 64.5% | No: 35.5%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Yes: 0.4% | No: 99.7%

When will Bitcoin hit $150k?

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 16:29:22 GMT

When will Bitcoin hit $150k

Volume: $27,134,577.505

Markets:

Will Bitcoin hit $150k by September 30?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by March 31, 2026?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%

Netanyahu out by...?

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 23:38:14 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of Israel, or otherwise steps down from/is removed from this position by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation or removal before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the State of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Volume: $123,951,660.695

Markets:

Netanyahu out by May 31?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Netanyahu out by July 31?
Yes: 0.0% | No: 100.0%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Yes: 46.5% | No: 53.5%

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Thu, 24 Jul 2025 23:37:56 GMT

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Volume: $39,493,445.318

Markets:

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Yes: 3.6% | No: 96.4%

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 19:42:02 GMT

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Volume: $686,283,604.212

Markets:

Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes: 2.1% | No: 98.0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes: 43.1% | No: 56.9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Yes: 23.4% | No: 76.6%

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 19:05:46 GMT

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

Volume: $678,301,001.68

Markets:

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes: 21.4% | No: 78.5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes: 10.4% | No: 89.5%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Yes: 10.2% | No: 89.8%

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 18:35:56 GMT

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources. Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Volume: $1,252,869,292.23

Markets:

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes: 18.3% | No: 81.8%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes: 15.0% | No: 85.0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
Yes: 5.3% | No: 94.7%